According to World Bank Economic Outlook published in October 2017, Algeria’s economic growth got off to a strong start in 2017. Real GDP growth estimated to have grown by 3.7 percent in the first quarter was mainly driven by strong production in the hydrocarbon sector, which grew by 7.1 percent.
Growth, however, decelerated sharply in the second half of 2017 and in 2018 as fiscal consolidation takes hold. As oil production stabilizes, headline growth will decline, and the impact of higher taxes and import duties will weigh on non-hydrocarbon growth. As a result, GDP growth is expected to stand at 2.2 percent for the full year 2017. GDP growth will struggle to breach 2 percent for 2018-19 – anemic for a middle-income country with a large youth bulge.
Algeria is the largest producer of natural gas in Africa with 44 percent market share of the total production. Its market share has decreased from a peak of 66 percent in 2000.
Algeria’s natural Gas Production increased at a Compounded Average Growth Rate (CAGR) of 2.1 percent between 2010 and 2016 while its consumption has increased at 7.23 percent during the same period.
Algeria holds the world's eleventh-largest amount of proved natural gas reserves and the third-largest technically recoverable shale gas resources and is the second-largest natural gas supplier to Europe.
Algeria has seen a decline in LNG exports at a CAGR of 2.18 percent between 2011 and 2016 though it will see an increase in LNG exports in 2017.
The report covers the natural gas and LNG sector in terms of the value chain, end-user consumption, and mode of exports. It addresses the forecast of demand and supply of natural gas from granular level with 2017 as the base year and forecast natural gas prices based on field-wise data collected from government sources.
Further, the report analyses and presents latest data on existing, under construction and proposed/planned LNG export plants, domestic and international export pipelines and presents critically analysis of policy & regulation in the upstream, midstream and downstream sector.
Sonatrach, Partex, British Petroleum (UK), Petroceltic, Enel, Engie, Cepsa (Spain), Repsol (Spain), Eni (Italy), Total (France), Statoil (Norway), Anadarko (US), Shell (Anglo-Dutch) et al.
Market Research Approach
Bottom-Up approach was used to analyse the market. Under this approach, market demand were forecast by adding state-wise and sector-wise demand in the country for a natural gas.
The supply and exports of natural gas is forecast using Delphi Method. The pricing of natural gas is based on the formula first introduced by decree dated 24 April 2005, was amended twice, in two respects. First, the inflation rate has been adjusted downward in decree dated 12 April 2007 from 5% to 3% then readjusted back to 5% in decree dated 12 January 2010.
Market Research Methodology
A primary survey was conducted using our proprietary SurveyIntel Pro © Model to analyse natural gas demand, supply, prices and LNG export patterns using a bottom-up approach.
Primary and Secondary Research was utilized for data collection and triangulation. Data was collected using techniques like interviews, surveys, focus groups, and market observations.
Primary Survey Respondents included:
Market Share, Volume & Value, Price, Profitability trends were analysed using time-series and econometric data analytics techniques using our EcoAnlayticsPro © Model. A detailed Competitor Analysis was conducted using our MarketIntel Pro © artificial intelligence based model to profile key market players and their reaction patterns. Supply and Value Chain Analysis was conducted using the Structured Rational Decision-Making model which focuses on strategic decision-making in supply chain.
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Algeria Natural Gas and LNG Market 2018-2025: Analytics, Value Chain, Strategy, Pricing, Investment and Competitor Mapping, By Value Chain (Upstream, Midstream and Downstream), End-user (Industry, Transport, Residential, Commercial and public services, Agriculture / forestry, Non-energy use- Petrochemicals, Other industries), Mode of Exports (Pipelines and LNG), Prices (Domestic wholesale and LNG) and Geography
1. Research Methodology
1.1. Primary Research
1.1.1. Sampling Techniques
1.1.2. Data Collection Methods
1.1.3. Primary Survey Participants
1.2. Statistical and econometrics Techniques
1.2.1. Time Series Analysis
1.2.2. Regression Analysis
1.2.3. Moving Averages
1.3. Qualitative Techniques
1.4. Market Size Estimation
1.4.1. Data Triangulation
1.5. Secondary Research
1.6. Scenario Analysis
1.7. Market Demand and Supply Factors & Determinants
1.8. Data Sources
2. Executive Summary
2.1. Introduction to Oil and Gas Market in Algeria
2.2. Market Historical trends, 2011-2016
2.3. Market Current Trends, 2017
2.4. Market Outlook, 2018-2025
3. Technology Paradigm and Evolution in Oil and Gas Sector
3.1. Oil and Gas Exploration
3.2. Midstream: Natural Gas Transmission Gas pipeline
4. Global Natural Gas Market Trends, 2018-2025
4.1. Global Market Overview
4.2. Market Dynamics
4.2.1. Market Structure
4.2.2. Market Drivers
4.2.3. Market Challenges
4.2.4. Market Investment Opportunities
4.3. Global Market Forecast, 2018-25
5. Algeria Macroeconomic Environment Analysis
5.1. Economic Environment
5.2. Socio-cultural environment
5.3. Political and Legal Environment
6. Algeria Mapping and Forecasting Structural Industrial Forces and Environment
6.1. Barriers to Entry
6.3. Costing Analysis
6.4. Bargaining power of Buyers and Sellers
6.5. Intensity of Rivalry
7. Natural Gas Reserves & Supplies in Algeria
7.1. Natural Gas Reserves, 2017
7.2. Natural Gas Supply Forecast in Algeria 2018-2025
7.2.1 Conventional Natural Gas Supply
7.2.2. Shale Gas
8. Liquefied Natural Gas infrastructure and contracts, 2018-2025
8.1. Existing LNG Plants
8.2. Under Construction LNG Plants, 2018-2025
8.3. Expansion LNG Plants, 2018-2025
8.4. Greenfield: Proposed LNG Plants, 2018-2025
8.5. Existing and Proposed LNG contracts
9. Natural Gas Policies: Exploration & Production
9.1. 1991 Amendment
9.2. 2005 Hydrocarbon Law
9.3. 2005 Hydrocarbon Law Revisions
9.4. Windfall Petroleum Tax
9.5. 2013 Amendments
10. Financial Model: Bidding for Upstream projects and Model
10.1. Supply Model
10.2. Revenue Model
10.3. Cost Model
10.4. Financial Returns
11. Natural Gas Prices and Pricing in Algeria
11.1. Historical perspective
11.2. Current pricing policy
11.3. Future pricing policy
12. Natural Gas Demand projection in Algeria
12.1. Market Demand Drivers and Factor Analysis
12.2. Historical Demand 2011-2016- By Consumer Segment: Industry, Transport, Residential, Commercial and public services, Agriculture / forestry, Non-energy use- Petrochemicals, Other industries
12.3. Demand Projections 2018-2025- By Consumer Segment: Industry, Transport, Residential, Commercial and public services, Agriculture / forestry, Non-energy use- Petrochemicals, Other industries
12.4. Demand Projections by Geography in Algeria: 2018-2025
13. Natural Gas Midstream Segment in Algeria, 2018-2025
13.1. Natural Gas Pipelines in Algeria, 2018-2025
13.2.1. Existing Natural Gas Pipelines, 2017
13.2.2. Under Construction, 2018-2025
13.2.3. Greenfield: Proposed, 2018-2025
14. Competitor Analytics: Market leader’s perspective
14.1. Defining the competitors
14.2. Mergers and Acquisitions
14.3. Market Signals and Trends
14.4. What derives the competitor?
14.5. Analysis of Resources and Capabilities
15. Foreign Trade Analysis
15.1. Export and Import Trends
15.2. Terms of access - quotas, tariffs, duties
16. M&A Activities and impact on Industry Structure
17. Economic and Demographics Forecast for Algeria
17.1. GDP Forecast
17.2. Per Capita Income Forecast
17.3. Population Headline Indicators
17.4. Key Population Ratios
17.5. Urban/Rural Population & Life Expectancy
17.6. Population by Age Group
18. Taxation Policy and Policy Rates
19. Industry Player Profiles and Financial Analytics
19.1. Business Overview
19.2. Financial Data
19..3. Product Landscape
19.4. Strategic Outlook
20. Industry Risk Analysis
20.1. Competition risk analysis
20.2. Consumer Behaviour risk analysis
20.3. Laws and Taxes risk analysis
20.4. Raw Market Price risk analysis
20.5. Supply Chain Risk Analysis
20.6. Environment risk analysis
21. Country Risk Analysis